1) Toxoplasma Gondii is a scary parasitic protozoa, and  it seems that any situation stemmed from the current organism is manageable.However, the disease can cause adverse effects in humans, I don’t think that it will ever cause an epidemic. Awareness to the disease is key, yet having rats as pets could reduce its presence in humans!

2) Well, a theory will be a theroy unless it’s applied. There is not such a Scientific proof without trying these methods or studies.

3) 7/7/2012

c.

Topic Outline

- Objective

- Introduction

- Advantages

- Conclusion

1) Future predictions could be right in some cases, and it might be wrong on others, which became the spoilsports. Life has many possibilities in knowing the results of an event will happen in the future. For instance, if you’re driving a car with less fuel, we can predict that it won’t take long to be broken. Every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, (Newton’s Law). A good mind will base the predictions on knowledge, present situation, and past situation. Even though the prediction could not be assure that %100 will be happened, but a small percent could be helpful to make a plan B. In most cases, spoilsports could be happen if the prediction based on a present action without knowledge, present, past facts, which makes some strategies in your thoughts. If you didn’t have that, then, you won’t be able to predict on any action in the future, and if you could, you can’t be sure even in a small percentage.

2) it’ll be research paper

1) (Technological singularity) When your children, if you have them, are as old as you are now, what kinds of computing devices will they use? 100 words or more.

Well, that’s an interesting question. Let’s say that I may be marrying at age 30. That would be on 2018. Also, I might have my first child on the first year, so I can predict that on 2040, my first child will be at his 20s.

In that particular time, I believe the wireless devices will be the major technology, and the microchips, will be smaller than we have now. So, a regular device like a cellphone for instance, it can be designed as small as a finger ring. The cables – which are used to connect or charge the devices, will be replaced with wireless, which will connect wirelessly to any device, and the touchscreen or keypads will be replaced with voice commands, so in this case everything they want to do is just say what they want, like calling, saving contacts, search, etc.

2) (AI singularity) How will society change when intelligent computers become widespread? 100 words or more.

In the present days, computers are the major term in everything. We can see that computers are used in everything, and that what made the society life easier than before. In the future, intelligent computers will improve the society life. We can expect from what we have from movies idea, like robots, flying cars, human integrated parts, and so on, that intelligent computers will change the society life in both ways good and bad. However, the most thing that concern is time and speed. Currently, we are living in the era of speed, but in the future, this speed could be change to extremely level, which make me think that everything will be hard to get.

3) (Life extension) Discuss the impacts on society of major life extension, if it happens. 100 words or more.
In the present days, computers are the major term in everything. We can see that computers are used in everything, and that what made the society life easier than before. In the future, intelligent computers will improve the society life. We can expect from what we have from movies idea, like robots, flying cars, human integrated parts, and so on, that intelligent computers will change the society life in both ways good and bad. However, the most thing that concern is time and speed. Currently, we are living in the era of speed, but in the future, this speed could be change to extremely level, which make me think that everything will be hard to get.

4) (Project presentation) Work on your presentation. Explain what you did.

Well, I’m working on a project in clean energy.

5) (Project) Work on your project. Explain what you did. Consider adding discussion of the impacts of technological singularity, the AI singularity, and life extension on your project topic.

There are many natural energy sources in our life. These sources can be replaceable.

For instance, electricity is one of the most common energy in the world. We use fossil energy to create it. While fossil fuel hazards affects natural life, beginning of environmental pollution ending in human health risks. Above of that, it’s so expensive. A country could spend billions of dollars each day just to provide that fossil fuel to generate enough energy for its electricity. However, if we replace that energy to more clean energy like Solar energy. We could reduce the risks of fossil fuel hazards. Also, it’s a friendly on the natural, and It’s one time cost and lifetime long.

Q1. ANS:

 When the world is going to be in peace?

Q2. ANS:

For many centuries the world has been in chaos. Many people have wondered about peace, and they probably couldn’t imagine that peace will exist, but their hopes force them to believe that one day it will happen. So, I created a survey with my question in surveymonkey.com. I was wondering what people think about it and I was sure that people are more likely to have faith and hope to be in peace. Unfortunately, I was wrong. After 760 responses I got, I realized that people are hopeless. See the results:

(Survey Link: http://surveymonkey.com/isr5

That doesn’t mean I’m the only one here is right!! No Not at all. We all do right and wrong things. The fact is that our hopeless will make us forget to raise our kids to believe in peace, which won’t make them create the peace. So, if we’re not living in peace, do our kids have to live the same way that we lived?. Of course not, we all want the best for our kids, and to do that, we first change ourselves, so that will impact our kids, then that will impact the next generation, after that It’ll impact the future and change it forever.

Q3.

a.doubling time = 11.895 years

b. %/year = 1.4142

c. %/year = 1.5874

a. Decide on a term project type: research paper, short story, computer program, web site, musical performance, or whatever else you would like to do. Say what it is.

• The type of my project is a research.

b. Decide on a term project topic: perhaps the topic you have been developing using the Delphi Method and other methods. Say what it is.

• My project topic is “When the world is going to be in peace?”

c. Decide what would be a good thing to do next on the project. It does not have to be a big thing, but should be something. Say what it is.

• In my opinion, I think it’ll be good to expand this topic and share it world wide, so in this case it might go further with concerns to the people who are in charge and we don’t know maybe the world is going to be in peace if the people go with one voice. “Take small step, and think big”.

2. TRIZ.

a. Pick a certain technology (existing or future) relevant to your topic. Suggest how an implementation of it could “branch out” and do something else. For example, pencils are a technology that “branched out” to also have erasers, storage bins for extra lead, clips for attaching it to a pocket, and so on. Cars now have air conditioners, play music, even have GPS devices for giving directions, etc. In the early days of cars, the idea of a car playing music might have been as strange as the idea of riding on a motorized guitar!

•  There are more technologies than we think are relevant to my topic. Definitely, the most wanted one is midecal appliance. Peace will reduce war disease, and we’ll have more support and focusing in medical Inventions and achievements.

b. TRIZ also contains 40 principles for improving technologies. These are summarized in the course notes. Pick any 5 of them you like and apply them to a technology relevant to your topic. What are the 5 possible future advances that you have discovered?

1. Segmentation
2. Taking out
3. Assymetry
4. Merging
5. Universality

3. We saw Pausch’s “Last Lecture” on “Achieving Your Childhood Dreams.” This was very applicable to this course because he was talking about the future…your future! (Actually, his kids’ futures – at the end he said that was one of his head fakes, but that’s ok.)

a. Give one or more lessons, insights, or other interesting thoughts you can get from the movie. Explain them.

• Dreams are the base of Inventions. With dreams you can change your life or others life’s.
• Fundamentals are walls for your achievements, without them, you won’t do better. 
• Brick walls are always good things, because brick walls let us show our dedication.
• We can’t change the cards we’re dealt, just how we play the hand. It’s a wonderful to encourage ourselves even if we know that we’re in a bad situation. 
• Always look at the bright sight, and don’t let the brick walls disturbed you.
• If you don’t get what you want, it’s not the end of life, probably there are some stuff more valuable.
• Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted.

b. Describe how you might apply it to either your future in general, or, in particular, to helping achieve a childhood dream.

• Well, everything starts small. So if I want my future goes bigger, I have to work hard without giving up until I reach my goal. Brick walls will be just like a bus stop, to rethink and decide which is better and which not. Until then, the bus will arrive and it’ll pick me up wherever I want to go. It’s just a matter of time until I arranged my thoughts again. So, the question is, do I believe in me or not? The right answer would be, “Anything impossible.”  

1) (10 pts.) Recall the topic that you did a Delphi analysis on and/or a topic that you wrote about in other HWs. Think about finalizing this as a term project topic, or decide on another topic. Now you have a topic (you can change it later if you decide to). Go to intrade.com or another prediction market company site and find at least one market that relates to your topic. Describe the market and its prediction. Analyze the situation and explain why you think the current price is too low, too high, or about right. Your explanation should be 200 words or more. This will later become 200 words of your actual project if it is a paper, so your effort will go to good use.

• Well, since my topic is about “World Peace”, I think the right market will be “POLITICS”.  A few days ago I did another  survey on my question “When the world is going to be in peace?”, but this time I just made it open for the people, and the results were private (‘No one knows the others answers’). So in this case I can assure that people will vote for the best answer as in their opinion. However, It has been three days and I received 732 answers, and still growing. 474 people say “NEVER will happen”, and that is a high percent from the actual total. So, what I see from the market and from the current events that we have, I see that the current percent is about right as I think.  

 2) (20 pts.) Let’s assume you have $1,000 to invest in prediction markets. Naturally, you want to make more money, meaning that when you sell your best judgments you get more than the $1,000 you invested. Identify a prediction market company that you want to pretend invest in. We looked at http://www.intrade.com in class but it is easy to find others: just do a Web search on “prediction market.” Using intrade as an example, you can pretend invest in their markets without signing up for a login. Just check the current prices of the specific markets you are interested in. We looked at a few in class (climate, politics, etc.). Or you can find another prediction market site besides intrade.com. You could even sign up for real at some prediction market company (keeping in mind that this course does not endorse, or suggest you to spend real money on, any particular company!). For the next question let’s assume you are making pretend use of intrade’s set of real markets. Modify slightly as needed if you are doing it differently.

• I have successfully signed up for an account at Intrade. My account# 11429965.

1. For your question that we used the Delphi Method on in class, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even MS Paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median.

• I didn’t discuse my question in the class, but it would be “When is the world going to be in peace? “. I asked this qeustion because human always search for peace, no one will live in a place contain crimes or some troubles. Also, peace is something we should conceren about it even if we just act like we don’t care about anything, imagine that the next genration what will become if there’s no peace, no mention what happened in World War I & II. How many families have been elminated, how many families cried for their lost, how many friends have been murdered. Alot of events is going out side, some of them well known and some of them not!. So, the only quetion that has been always asked “Why?”. From my side, I always ask myself that quetion, and think about the future of our kids. Is it really going to be the same ? or it might be changed!? .. Thinkful, we’re looking forward for better future, if we couldn’t live that peace, then why we don’t let our kids live it?. 
• The median for my responses collated is “2020″.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library, if you remember what those are – they still have useful stuff not available on-line!). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found. 

• Delphi method has five processes. First, define the problem, and identfiy the problem in an easy and understandable way. Then, share the problem with the people and talk about it with them. After that, collate the responses from people feedback into a single anonymous list. Next, give everyone the collation with the request to score each item in a given scale. Now, you can repeat the same method as necessary. Finally, to determine the final result you have to take the median or mean score. 
• The process we performed in class differs from the Delphi method in a few respects. Yes, we still get same methods, but I don’t believe we classmates meet the standard for independent experts, and don’t share or even work as group. Secondly, our predictions were not anonymous, which we limited the results, and most of my classmates share their thoughts standing to their feelings not to the researches and facts. In my opinion, if we openwide our topics, I’m sure we’ll have a really great results.

3. Based on what you find out about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

• Using this method in the class won’t work. The best way to make this method effective, it really only works if the participants are experts and willing to participate.

4. Consider the topic that you worked on for HW2, for which you investigated the future impacts (on individuals, organizations, and society):

• It’ll impact the world future. Imagine if the world in peace, there would be a plenty changes. The first thing, people will be together sharing their lives. There wouldn’t be an unknown town or place. Technology will be improved for %90 each year, because there is nothing to disturb our minds and everyone will participate with it.  We’ll make the rough things easier to go through. Just if you imagine that, be sure your imagination will be %1 from the future impact facts. 

Q. When is the world going to be in peace?

Well, I’ve asked some of my friends that question, and the results are :

1. 2013
2. 2015
3. 2020
4. 2022
5. 2070